Serbia’s Constitutional Referendum: A Question Of Validity
The European Union, Council of Europe, OSCE, ODIHR, Venice Commission, and the United States have all either congratulated Serbia or kept silent on the conduct of the weekend constitutional referendum, which – by a very narrow margin, with just over 50 per cent of all registered voters in favour – endorsed a new constitution reaffirming Serbia’s claim to Kosovo and created a more centralised state.
The International Crisis Group, however, which has had a longstanding presence on the ground in Serbia, followed closely the whole referendum process, and has had access to NGO monitors’ reports and other evidentiary material and contact with many other witnesses, believes however that there are very strong grounds for questioning the referendum’s validity. Already statistical discrepancies between official results and those of independent monitors are evident.
Witnesses and videotape evidence indicate that many voters were permitted not only to vote without providing photographic identification, but also to vote for persons other than themselves and to cast multiple ballots simultaneously. Actual voter turnout in some areas was less than one quarter of what the government has claimed. On the second day of polling, Sunday 29 October, the indelible ink check was not performed in some polling places. Polling station officials assisted in these and other irregularities, including ballot box stuffing.
The most serious violations appear to have occurred after 14:00 on the afternoon of Sunday 29 October, when it became apparent that there would otherwise be insufficient voter turnout for the government to credibly claim victory. Testimony provided to Crisis Group by poll workers indicates that many received instructions from their superiors that the referendum must not fail. This was also the point at which the authorities intensified their media campaign in favour of the referendum.
The entire referendum process was deliberately skewed in advance by the authorities. The number of independent observers was limited, so that effective monitoring was available at no more than 18 per cent of the country's 8,375 polling places. Foreign observers were present in such small numbers that they could monitor fewer than one per cent of the polling places. No provision was made for securing the ballot boxes during the night of 28-29 October. Rather than the standing municipal election commissions being used, special referendum commissions were created to administer the poll at the local level, appointed by the central government in Belgrade and consisting only of members of those political parties who favoured passage of the constitution.
Crisis Group's Program Director for Europe, Dr Nicholas Whyte, stated: “If significant electoral fraud has indeed occurred, as seems extremely likely, this is a huge step backwards for Serbia. The international community must make it clear that Serbia will be held to the highest standards of democratic practice, and that this referendum will not be regarded as any kind of affirmation of Serbia's democratic and European credentials.”