The Daily Express: Brussels counts cost of Brexit: Five countries who will be worst hit by no-deal UK divorce14 August 2018 | 05:17 | FOCUS News Agency
EU members could end up shelling out over £500billion as they prepare for trade tariffs and extra costs associated with Britain leaving the bloc without a withdrawal agreement, according to a bombshell report.
According to work carried out by Professor Patrick Minford, a former adviser to Margaret Thatcher and chairman of Economists for Free Trade, the EU would end up forking out £433 billion in trade tariffs on a WTO deal.
Also EU countries would suffer a 1.5 percent drop in national income in the event of a no deal, according to a separate study by the International Monetary Fund.
The EU’s lost economic output would cost the bloc around cost an estimated £189bn, leaving member states’ industries potentially devastated.
Ireland, Italy, France, Belgium and Germany would be amongst the EU’s biggest losers. Here’s how they could be hit.
Dublin would suffer a massive four percent hit to its GDP as a result of a no deal Brexit – the worst of any EU member.
The IMF predicts because of the highly integrated nature of the Irish and the UK’s economies, Ireland could face significant consequences as a result.
The Republic of Ireland relies heavily on cross-border trade with Northern Ireland. In 2016, Northern Ireland exported around £4 billion worth of goods and services to the south.
The Republic exported roughly £1.3 billion of goods in the same year, according to their own figures.
Paris’ £4 billion trade surplus with Britain would be put at significant risk if no withdrawal deal is reached.
Gerald Darmanian, a French finance minister, said a no-deal Brexit would a “disaster” for the flow of goods between Britain and the Continent.
France is also fuming after European Commission planning decided to exclude French ports from new shipping routes between Ireland and the Continent.
This means Paris’ coastal ports could lose on on billions of EU funding to help increase their capacity after Brexit.
Berlin currently enjoys trade deals with Britain that are worth £61 billion, which the Federation of German Industry warns are at risk in the event of a no deal.
The BDI is worried about increased friction in trade with Britain after Brexit. The UK is the second-biggest export market for German car manufacturers.
Customs duties of £2 billion a year would be added to the cost of German cars bought by British consumers under a no-deal Brexit.
Last year, 950,000 cars made by Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz were registered in the UK as part of the £20 billion worth of German cars that were imported.
A no-deal Brexit "will hurt the Belgian economy seriously", according to shock warnings from its finance minister Johan Van Overtveldt.
The country will lose around 42,000 in the Flanders region alone as havoc is wreaked across the small nation.
Mr Van Overtveldt said: "Belgium is the fourth exporter, in nominal amounts, into the UK, on a par with France which is a much bigger country. And so, if Brexit goes the wrong way, in terms of the hard Brexit, it will hurt the Belgian economy seriously.
"We’re talking about thousands and thousands of jobs depending on the business done with the UK."
Rome could have to contribute an extra £900 million a year into Brussels' budget coffers in order to make up the shortfall left by Brexit.
The country's farmers are also concerned that any restriction in free trade between the Italy and the UK would devastate their industry.
Roberto Moncalvo, president of Italian farming union Coldiretti said the UK’s exit from the EU in March 2019 would “weaken” Italy’s farming industry and export trade.
He warned Italian agriculture “can’t pay the price of Brexit”.
They fear an estimated cut of ?2.7billion (£2.3billion) to the budget of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), something which could heavily impact 800,000 Italian farms.
© 2018 All rights reserved. Citing Focus Information Agency is mandatory!